Aim 1: Generate visions of desirable vs expected futures of transport and urban land use (horizon year 2050).
It’s closely linked to task package 3, it’s assigned to the UPM team’s subproject with close collaboration of the UAH team. The degree of achievement of this aim is 100%, having been fully completed. The tasks performed according to the project report are detailed below.
Task 3.1: Analysis of the current situation and generation of the trend vision or business-as-usual.
A review of the plans, programs and strategies developed by the public administrations in the Henares corridor was carried out (eg urban land-use plans, infrastructure plans, specific plans of transport operators, etc) to obtain this trend visión. The result has laid the foundations for the design of the Task 3.3 questionnaire.
Task 3.2. Selection of participants.
150 participants between 18 and 36 years old were selected, who were randomly recruited in the ‘Henares corridor’ to provide sufficient diversity to the sample according to age, sex, habitual mode of transport and relationship with the corridor (eg, occasional travelers, residents, etc.). The recruitment process was carried out in the main employment centers, university campuses, public transport stations, parking areas, etc., in May-July 2018. In a second stage, 21 experts in innovation and strategic thinking were contacted; they’d evaluate the level of innovation of future visions through an online questionnaire (see task 3.4). In a final phase, a total of 15 experts in transport and land use were recruited (municipal technicians, promoters, etc.) with whom an experimental workshop was carried out (task 3.5).
Task 3.3. Preparation of questionnaires.
A questionnaire was prepared on the trend vision generated in Task 3.1. To prepare the questionnaire, rounds of discussion were established between the researchers of the two subprojects, including a pilot workshop (April 2018) with students from the University of Alcalá to check the level of understanding of the questionnaire, implementation difficulties, etc.
Task 3.4. Construction of future narratives of transport and land use at the urban level.
Based task 3.3.’s questionnaire, semi-structured interviews (recorded in their entirety) were conducted with the 150 selected participants. Once processed and validated, he recordings gave rise to 138 valid interviews for their transcription and compared coding by two researchers from the UPM team, which resulted in a global database. Descriptive analyzes based on the histograms of responses were carried out on it, which were the basis for obtaining 7 previously indicated future visions (time horizon 2050) on transport and land use in the Henares corridor. The 7 visions obtained was evaluated by a total of 21 experts in innovation and strategic thinking through an online questionnaire. This analysis has been completed, resulting in a scientific publication (Soria-Lara et al. 2021).
Task 3.5 Collaborative cartographies of the future narratives.
This task mainly consisted of conducting an experimental workshop (June 2019) with 15 experts in transport and land use (task 3.2.); the aim was mapping three of the future visions (task 3.4.). Three experts were real estate developers, four were municipal technicians from the Henares corridor and the rest were professionals linked to transport and urban planning. The experts were divided into 3 homogeneous groups with regard to the profile of the participants. For the development of the workshop, it was necessary to generate a base cartography for the Henares corridor from cadastral cartography, including 5 different land uses (task 1.3), and its transfer to panels with pushpins that allow the manipulation of the different land uses (see video on the web Spanish version).
The workshop consisted of two phases: (1) responses to general questions of the vision (eg degree of mix of uses, amount of change of each land use, etc); and (2) using the answers given in the first phase, the experts had to collaboratively map the changes in land use and in the transport infrastructures for the Henares Corridor in the time horizon of 2050. The results of this collaborative mapping process will help establish land use change simulation rules for the later phases of the project. Derived from the participatory mapping workshop, two scientific publications have emerged (Molinero-Parejo et al. 2021; Ariza-Álvarez et al. 2021).
Aim 2: Model changes in land use at the urban level based on the future visions.
It’s proposes the modeling and simulation of future scenarios from the generated visions, using the results of future visions and their cartographic representation (see Aim 1). The goal, which is approximately 85% complete, corresponds to the following tasks (work package 4).
Task 4.1. Preparation of the simulation model prototype for the simulation of future visions.
The possibilities of implementing two simulation models of urban land use change have been explored: (1) based on cellular automata (AC) and (2) based on agents.
Regarding the CA-based model, the conceptual design of Barreira et al. (2017) has been modified, including new features: a) simulation of five urban land uses, b) further relaxation of the model to represent different urban processes within the context of simulating disruptive scenarios (urban land use conversion and abandonment), and c) computational optimization through parallelization tasks to improve simulation efficiency in metropolitan areas. Currently the model is developed and in the testing phase. Regarding the agent model, we’ve begun to explore the possibility of developing a model that simulates the future scenarios proposed, focusing on different behaviors of two agents: real estate developers and the population. At the moment, it has been considered to work with at least two types of promoter agents, using expert knowledge to model their behavior. Some of the promoters currently operating in the Henares Corridor have been contacted (some of them had already participated in the collaborative mapping workshop, task 3.5.) and we’re working on the preparation of a survey to obtain information that allows reproducing their behaviors in relation to to your initiatives and constructive goals.
Task 4.2. Calibration of simulation models.
The aim is to calibrate the simulation model based on the changes in land use reflected in the collaborative mapping generated (task 3.5). In this regard, in the first place, it was necessary to digitize the analog cartography generated in task 3.5, obtaining 3 maps of future scenarios (see Figure2 on the web Spanish versión).
Regarding the calibration of the vector model based on CA, the first step was its analysis by means of Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (RLGP) of the territorial variables that influence the location of changes in land use in each of the scenarios. For modeling urban sprawl, it is crucial to quantify the influence of explanatory factors. This analysis has been completed and is included in a scientific publication (Molinero-Parejo et al. 2021). This approach also assumes the spatial variation of the (non-stationary) data, reflecting Tobler’s first law of Geography: “Everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related than distant things”. The results show a good adjustment of the growths represented in the workshop with those estimated from a set of combined territorial variables (see Figure 3 on the web Spanish version).
For the calibration, all the necessary factors have been treated, including: a) the neighborhood obtained from the attraction-repulsion functions in a vector context for the different land uses, b) the accessibility of each plot as a function the distance to the nearest road network axis, c) the aptitude of each plot to develop a specific urban land use and, d) its zoning or legal status with respect to current urban legislation. The model is currently being calibrated by running numerous simulations that combine all the parameters. The results obtained will be compared with those resulting from the collaborative mapping of future narratives to finally obtain the simulated scenario with the best fit.
Task 4.3. Simulation of future scenarios.
After calibration for the three scenarios (“Non-motorized historic centers”, “An overcrowded corridor” and “High levels of public insecurity”), the combinations of selected parameters with the best fit will be noted; these could be used for future simulations.
Task 4.4. Presentation and discussion of the simulations (with agents).
It’ll be developed in the coming months.
Aim 3: Design integrated policies for transport and land use appropriate to the contexts of the future visions.
It proposes the design of policies, at the urban level, integrated and appropriate to the contexts of the visions of the future generated in Aim 1. It corresponds to the package of tasks 5 and, currently, the following tasks have been developed:
Task 5.1. Review and selection of integrated transport and land use policies at the urban level.
It involves conducting a bibliographic review of successful experiences that help to select possible interventions and measures with which to redirect (or take advantage of) the most unfavorable aspects identified in the visions (Aim 1).
Task 5.2. Design of an adaptive planning framework that integrates disruptive visions.
It involves the conceptual design of an adaptive planning framework to build adaptive policies that integrate transport and land uses. This framework will allow the evolution of traditional planning processes, incorporating monitoring and contingency plans that adapt the planning measures adopted to possible disruptive events (eg COVID-19 pandemic). The basis of this task are future visions (Aim 1) and simulations (Aim 2). Through a questionnaire sent to experts and stakeholders, the future visions are used to verify the validity of the conceptual framework created to design adaptive policies in the Henares Corridor.
Task 5.3. Creation of “adaptation policy pathways” with experts.
After designing the adaptive planning framework, workshops will be held with different agents involved in territorial and transport planning in the Henares Corridor, with the aim of assembling itineraries of land use and transport policies that nurture the adaptive planning framework generated in Task 5.2. These itineraries will also be evaluated during the workshops, according to suitability and feasibility criteria (see Figure 4 on the web Spanish versión).
Aim 4: Evaluate the results and impacts of the scenarios.
This aim corresponds to task package 6 and is currently under development. The results of the land use change simulations (prepared in task package 4) will be evaluated based on their spatial characteristics using spatial metrics, such as the Landscape Expansion Index (Liu et al., 2010), specially designed to differentiate three typologies of urban expansion: interstitial growth, expansion of the peripheries or dispersed growth. In this way, the urban growth patterns experienced in each of the simulated scenarios will be analyzed.
In this regard, the existence of previous works on valuation of the spatial configuration of urban land uses through spatial metrics (Aguilera et al., 2011; 2014) and also on the relationship between configuration of land uses and transport (Soria- Lara et al., 2016) will guarantee the achievement of this task.